EURUSD. US Unemployment rate and NonFarm Payrolls (8 June 12:30 GMT)

Last month the unemployment rate in the USA went from 4.9% to 4.7%, although the data on NonFarm paid positions turned out to be the worst in the last 5 years – 70% lower than expected. On top of that, due to UK’s exit from the European Union and the geopolitical risks grew more ominous and it means the FOMC will be more careful about raising the interest rate, which will have a negative effect on the US dollar.

NonFarm is one of the most sought-after news in the financial market. The publication of this report is inevitably followed by high volatility. Should the NonFarm figures meet the expectations, it will boost the US dollar.

Last week there were two important US economic reports. The first one is the GDP change for the first quarter of 2016 and the actual result a a bit higher that the forecast (and it had a positive impact on US Dollar):

..Consumer Confidence index was unexpectedly for the majority of market participants almost 5% higher than the expectations (it also had a positive impact on US Dollar):

It s very important to mention that Eurozone economy data was also on a decent level last week. According to the preliminary CPI data it is possible to say that the decision to cut both refinance and deposit rates sometime ago is beginning to yield the desirable results. CPI increase should be considered as a positive impact on EUR as long as year-over-year inflation is lower that 2-2.5%:

..also, unemployment level is no longer increasing (but remains on a pretty high level):

But due to the will of Brits to leave the European Union further escalation of “Brexit” situation will prevail over both fundamental analysis (publication of economic reports) and technical analysis.

EURUSD price remained almost unchanged after the last trading week. There was a somewhat rate decrease at the start of trading session on Monday, but this rate movement was due to new information regarding “Brexit” situation. After that geopolitical situation has stabilized and European currency started to strengthen and there is almost an upward trend on EURUSD H1 chart.